Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Smoking Crack

This morning I saw Tom Toles' daily cartoon, which pretty much sums up Republican fiscal policy over the past seven years. Here's the cartoon,



But it also made me think about some of the news stories I've read lately regarding the Bush presidential legacy. Apparently smoking crack has created severe short term memory loss on the part of some of the media. The assessment that shocked me the most was the idea that Bush's legacy might be written in a more positive vein if the current surge in Iraq yields positive results. After lying to get us into Iraq in the first place and squandering thousands of American lives, can any subsequent success rehabilitate the Bush presidency with respect to Iraq?

If a criminal, after a long and vicious crime spree, finally stops, should we hold him up as a paragon for ceasing his criminal acts? Or should he be remembered (and brought to justice, if only in the history books) as the criminal he actually was?

Thursday, December 6, 2007

A Modest Proposal

Well, I promised more than just photos of my puppy. Today I was struck by a commentary by Robert Reich (part of which is excerpted below). This fueled my desire to make some comments about what we should really be debating with respect to the economy. The distribution of income and wealth has become so skewed in this country that one would think it would be front and center in the political debate. But that isn't so. Instead we waste time and words on less important issues like subprime mortgages. [This is an issue that really burns me. Bush's new proposal (rumored to be announced today) will actually reward all the greedos or criminals who lied about their incomes and took out mortgages that they couldn't afford. Sensible people who didn't place themselves in economic jeopardy will not be rewarded and may actually be punished in the long run by this piece of political expediency.]

Anyway, back to the point. Here is Reich's commentary(with some emphasis added):

It's the Economy, Stupid -- But Not Just the Current Slowdown.


Most Americans are still not prospering in the global economy -- addressing this means thinking bigger than tax cuts or spending increases.



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According to new polls, the economy is the number 1 issue for American voters. But that's not just because the economy is slowing and mortgages are harder to come by. The real reason is middle-class families have exhausted the coping mechanisms they've used for over three decades to get by on median wages that are barely higher than they were in 1970, adjusted for inflation. Male wages today are actually lower than they were then; the income of a young man in his 30s is now 12 percent below that of a man his age three decades ago.

The first coping mechanism was moving more women into paid work. The percent of working mothers with school-age children has almost doubled since 1970 -- from 38 percent to about 70 percent. Some parents are now even doing 24-hour shifts, one on child duty while the other works. I call these families DINS - double income, no sex.

When families couldn't paddle any harder, we started paddling longer. The typical American now works two weeks more each year than 30 years ago. Compared to any other advanced nation we're veritable workaholics, putting in 350 more hours a year than the average European, more even than the notoriously industrious Japanese.

As the tide of economic necessity continued to rise, we turned to the third coping mechanism. We began taking equity out of our homes, big time. But now that home prices are sinking for the first time in decades, this final coping mechanism no longer keeps us afloat. As Moody's reported last week, defaults on home equity loans have surged to the highest level this decade.

In short, it's the economy, stupid. But not just the current slowdown. The underlying problem began around 1970. And any presidential candidate seeking to address it will have to think bigger than stimulating the economy with tax cuts or spending increases. The fact is, most Americans are still not prospering in the high-tech, global economy that emerged three decades ago. Almost all the benefits of economic growth since then have gone to a relatively small number of people at the very top. The candidate who acknowledges this and comes up with ways to truly spread prosperity will have a good chance of winning over America's large and largely-anxious middle class.

This column is adapted from Reich's weekly commentary on American Public Radio's Marketplace.


This brings me to my "modest proposal" (and we aren't going to serve up any immigrant children for dinner). When people like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates begin to notice that they aren't paying enough in taxes (and say so in front of Congress), it's probably time to listen. When hedge fund managers and financial engineers who create situations like the alleged "subprime crisis" make thousands of times what a kindergarten teacher makes, it's probably time to take action. We are willing to bail out stupid greedy people who assume mortgages they never should have qualified for in the first place and banks that lose billions investing in questionable (not any more!) securities, but are we willing to pay a living wage and find a decent place to live for a kindergarten teacher?

The first step would be to have a rational tax code that reflects our country's commitment to egalitarianism (and this is only a first step--it's a long way from solving the problems that Reich discusses in his commentary).

Craig's tax proposal: Find the median salary for public school teachers in the ten largest US cities. All income earned by any person below that figure would be exempt from taxes. Above that level, there would be two marginal rates: 20 percent and 50 percent. There would be no deductions for anything and any kind of income--wages, interest, capital gains--would be taxed. The levels at which the marginal rates apply would be set (for now at least) at points that would yield the same level of income to the government as it receives in 2007, except that all income over five million dollars would be taxed at the higher rate. There would be no corporate income tax, but there would be limits on the wealth a corporation could hoard--they would either have to reinvest it in the business or pay it out in dividends.

There are a lot of other things that need to be fixed, too--health care, Social Security, Medicare, etc., but the tax system would be the easiest if we only had the will.

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Brunch with Friends from the Fed

This morning we had a nice brunch with some friends at the Fed. One of our sophisticated urban friends picked a restaurant called Sepia. The ambiance is very pleasant and the food is decent. Here's a picture of the restaurant.



The group included most of the people I worked with or for over the past couple of years. here's a group picture.



The level of celebration increased when Susan noticed a beautiful ring on our friend Kristin's hand. Turns out her boyfriend Bob had proposed to her when they were in Ireland a couple of weeks ago. She hadn't yet been back in town to tell everyone the good news. Bob designed the ring himself and it's beautiful--a solitaire diamond with two square emeralds on either side (they are of Irish descent). Here's a picture of Kristin and Bob.



This will be the last post from the frozen north. Tomorrow we're headed for warmer climes. It's been a good visit--we got to spend time with the things we miss most about Chicago--our family and friends.

A Growing Puppy

Ginger continues to captivate us. She's settled into a routine that we are finding tolerable. She sleeps for about eight hours every night before she gets impatient about getting up. She's growing fast--her weight has increased by about a third since we got her and she seems generally healthy. She has had a cold and a nasty cough that makes her sound like a chain smoker nearing death when she gets up in the morning, but she's full of energy and loves to play with her balls and tug rope. She got a new toy this weekend from her friend Jonesy. It's a stuffed frog that she loves to shake (it rattles). She is pretty well behaved and accidents are few and far between (as long as we keep a close eye on her). She is learning some basic commands. "Sit" is very good, along with "come" (if she's not absorbed in something). "Stay" is pretty good, unless I turn my back and then she follows me as I walk away. She seems to be a pretty smart little puppy and I think it will be pretty easy for her to learn basic commands.

Here are some recent pictures.






and playing with a new favorite toy.



It turns out that she is a very good traveler, so it was a good idea to bring her along. She doesn't mind the cold nearly as much as we do.

Return to the Frozen North

We finally succumbed to our desire to see our family and friends in Chicago and made a trip back to Illinois. Now I am trying to figure out if it was worth it. Yesterday afternoon while we were out to lunch and a movie with our friends the Agnellos, it started to snow. Then it started to sleet. Then came the freezing rain. Fortunately, they know something about clearing streets here in Chicago, so the trip home was a little slower, but not dangerous. When we got to our son and daughter-in-law's house and parked in the driveway our car began to slide backwards. Before it was finished, it had slid about six feet down the driveway. We quickly realized one reason we moved to Texas (it didn't help that we were getting regular weather updates from our daughter in Texas).

But despite my griping, the trip has been worth it. The kids are as cute as we remembered, Robert and Sarah run a comfortable hotel and it was great to reconnect in person with our friends here. Nonetheless, tomorrow we are hightailing it south.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Life with a Puppy, etc.

Ginger has been with us for a week now. It's hard to imagine her not being here. She has integrated into our family very well. The first week our lives pretty much revolved around her. This week the challenge is to reduce that a little. She seems OK when we leave her for a while so this morning we'll all be gone for an hour or so--me to the practice range and Susan and Jocelyn to the fitness center.

Susan and I have started using the fitness center. We met with a trainer who set up a regimen for each of us based on our needs. The center here is very well equipped. There is a double set of exercise machines as well as free weights. In addition, there are about 20 treadmills, 10 elliptical machines and a dozen or more bicycles. Susan is going to start water aerobics this morning in one of the pools. Right now there seems to be a good balance between the number of users and the quantity of equipment--we never have to wait long, if at all, for the machine we need.

We've also started playing more golf. Unfortunately the quality of our play is not improving as fast as we'd like. Mostly it's a problem of consistency-- a few good holes or even a good nine--followed by some spectacularly bad play. I've started posting my rounds so I'll have a handicap index soon. It's not going to be pretty. But I'm optimistic. I just need to use better judgement and hit fewer abysmal shots. I think I'll be solidly in the 80s soon. The real challenge will be improving after that.

I did finally spend the Golfsmith gift card that my Fed colleagues gave me as a retirement gift. I got a new Nike driver. I think I'm going to like it a lot. Thanks to all of you for this assistance in improving my game.

I've also started doing a little consulting work for the Fed. The early work will be gratis--sort of on spec--in anticipation of more work later, because the IRS doesn't like for companies to pay recent retirees for doing work similar to what they did before retirement (the reasoning escapes me). I'm working on transforming a course the Fed uses for examiner training so that it can be taught to non-US examiners. I've finished the first lecture and I'll start on the second one this week.

We're planning for our first trip back to Chicago. We want to make it before it gets too cold. This fall has brought home to us one of the reasons why we moved to Texas. Today the high will be 83 and tomorrow 87. We'll have a cold snap on Thursday and Friday with a high of 68. Fall here is very nice. Anyway, our plans right now are to leave the week after Thanksgiving, stop and see my mom in Springfield and then stay in Chicago at least through December 2. There are a lot of people we want to see and we'd like some extra time with Rob, Sarah and the grandkids.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Our New Family Member

Today a little cockapoo named Ginger joined us in Georgetown. We'd been looking for a puppy for a while and been unable to decide exactly what we wanted. We finally found a website offering cockapoos down near Houston. They were so cute we couldn't resist any longer.

We're just getting to know one another, but Ginger seems to be adjusting to us pretty well. It remains to be seen how we'll adjust to her. We're in a better position to train and raise a dog now that we're retired and we hope to avoid many of the mistakes that we made with our first two dogs.

Here are some early pictures:



Sunday, October 28, 2007

Halloween Update

I'm going to try to be better about updating my blog. I'm shooting for once a week, but my life now seems so mundane that it's hard to single out the things worth blogging about. Retirement is still not quite real (or maybe it is and I just didn't know what to expect). We still haven't completely settled in--still buying furniture and other things for the house. My current project is finishing off a desk for our daughter. We thought we had found the perfect one for her room, but when it arrived and we started putting it together, we realized that it had no top. The one in the showroom had a roll top and we asked if we could get it with a flat top. The sales person went away to check the catalogue and then told us that we could order the base without the roll top. Well, that much was correct, but that flat part of the top was connected to the roll part of the top. So now I am trying to finish a piece of wood to use as a top. We'll see if retirement has made me any handier.

I have noticed a couple of differences about retirement--I never know what day it is and I've stopped wearing my watch. It's not that time is less important, it's just that it's less important when it is. I do have to keep track of tee times, so on those days I do pay a little more attention to the time.

Speaking of golf, I'm still waiting for my game to come around. My main problem is not that I don't have any good rounds, it's that I'm really inconsistent. A couple of weeks ago I shot 90, which for someone who's played as little as I have over the past few years is not bad. But my 90 for 18 holes was made up of a 52 on the front 9 and a 38 on the back 9 (that's 16 over par and 2 over par). In Florida, I shot 98 one day and 83 the other on courses of equal difficulty. I'm hoping that the good scores are where I'll end up.

We wewnt to a pumpkin carving/backyard warming party at Chris and Tim's last night. It was a lot of fun. Tons of good food (Tim is a fabulous cook) and some pumpkin carving. Here are some pictures. My granddaughter as a cat:



And some pumpkin head:







Here's how I keep up with the grandkids. This is my daughter and me talking to my Texas grandchild:



She's an early Skype adopter. She also has pretty good hardware for a five month old.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Vacation in Orlando

We are on our way back from Orlando, where we went to play a little golf and visit some theme parks with our grandkids from Chicago. A bonus was that our daughter Chris was in Orlando for a conference (and brought her daughter) and Jocelyn was able to fly in for a couple of days. That put all our extended family except my mom and Chris's husband Tim in Florida at the same time. Sarah's mom Jane and her friend Audrey were also able to drive down from New York, so a good portion of the family was able to visit at the same time.

It was a lot of fun accompanying Rob and Sarah and their kids to the parks. All the grandkids were amazingly well behaved. Except for Friday (when Rob and I played golf) the lines were short and we were able to see almost everything we planned. The weather was unseasonably warm, but the new Texans seemed to mind it less than the Chicago part of the clan.

Here are some pictures from the parks:





All the older grandkids are crazy about Star Wars, so at MGM we had to do all things Star Wars. The Jedi Training Academy was a must, where all three kids hoped to be selected for training. As luck would have it the Jedi master selected our granddaughter to be one of his padawans (students). The boys hid their disappointment well and were proud of their little sister. Here is our granddaughter undergoing training (note the mouse ears) and dueling Darth Vader:



Our youngest granddaughters got a chance to get reacquainted. It's a shame they are so close in age and so far apart geographically. They are both beyond cute. That's Rob and Sarah's girl on the left and Chris and Tim's daughter on the right.



We're on our way home now (actually in Baton Rouge just off the LSU campus). Next week it will be back to the retirement grind.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Am I retired?

This week marked my first return to things Fed. I attended a conference at the Dallas Fed for a couple of days. I was invited to help present some of the training projects I've been working on the past couple of years to the general capital markets population. I jumped at the opportunity because it gave me a chance to get together with some colleagues I hadn't seen since August. It turned out that one of the purposes was also to pay me some nice compliments for the work I've done. One of my friends/colleagues from the Board got up and said a lot of nice things about me and then gave me a framed set of Federal Reserve notes--one from each district--each with the signature of the people from that Bank with whom I've worked during the past few years. I was a very nice gesture (and a cool gift) and I really appreciated it. Then another colleague--a native Texan--presented me with a new Stetson hat and a Waterford crystal vase from the folks involved with all the training work we've been doing. The hat fits perfectly, so I'll have to get some western wear to go with it.

I really appreciated the gifts, but more than that I appreciated all the nice things people said about me. I feel really fortunate that I had the opportunity to work with so many outstanding colleagues over the past nine years. I have to admit that all the attention has embarrassed me a little because I know that a lot of what is being credited to me belongs just as much to the people I've had the pleasure to work with.

The visit was nice and seeing everyone was great, but I find that I have no regrets about retiring. I'm sure that partly it's because I haven't yet come to the point where I'll have to ask myself "OK--what do I do next?" There's also the prospect that I'll stay a little connected through some of the work I've agreed to do for the System over the next few months. It's nice to be able to ease my exit. I'm out of sight, but not entirely out of mind.